Broncos vs. Packers Late Week Report

The Green Bay Packers come into this weekend’s game against the Denver Broncos at 3-0. They are one of only two undefeated teams remaining in the NFC and are looking for their tenth straight victory dating back to last season. The Broncos, on the other hand, are playing mediocre football. They come to Lambeau with a 1-2 record and a fed up fan base. The Broncos fans are chomping at the bit to have Tim Tebow, the third string quarterback, replace starter Kyle Orton. The fans feel that if they are going to lose, they should lose with Tebow as their quarterback. I am a big fan of Kyle Orton and consider him very underrated as a quarterback. He is tough, mentally and physically. Since he has come into the league he has been overlooked. First in Chicago when he was replaced by Rex Grossman and now in Denver with fans calling for his benching in favor of Tim Tebow. This could be looked at as a trap game for the Packers because it is, on paper, an inferior team and the Packers go to Atlanta next Sunday and play a big game against the Falcons. In the NFL you have to be on your game every week or you are going to lose and I believe the Packers will not take the Broncos too lightly.

The Packers vs. Broncos rivalry is a pretty historic one. The two teams have faced off in a Super Bowl and have had some pretty historic matchups. The Packers come into this game relatively healthy. Ruled out for the game are Nick Collins (neck), Mike Neal (knee), and Frank Zombo (scapula). Collins was lost for the season but is still on the active roster and Mike Neal will be out at least 4-5 more weeks after finding a cartilage tear on his injured knee. Zombo may return to practice next week but still could be out a couple more weeks. Ryan Grant (kidney), Bryan Bulaga (knee), Charles Woodson (foot and knee), and Brad Jones (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Grant and Bulaga are long shots to play on Sunday, even though they expressed their availability to play to the media. If Grant and Bulaga cannot go on Sunday, James Starks and Marshall Newhouse would take their spots on offense. Woodson should practice in the walkthrough on Friday and be ready to go on Sunday. Jones is harder to tell because it is a hamstring. I would inactivate him this week because Vic So’oto got a full week of practice in and should be healed from his weightlifting back injury. The Pack practiced outside on Thursday and where in full pads working on tackling and hitting drills. I would expect the Pack to exploit the Broncos safeties and linebackers in coverage and get the ball to Jermicheal Finley with a heavy dose of play action passes. The Broncos will try to take away Greg Jennings, so Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and James Jones should have more passes thrown to them.

The Broncos have no one ruled out of the game yet. Wide receiver Eddie Royal (groin), Demaryius Thomas (finger), and tight end Julius Thomas (ankle) all sat out Wednesday’s practice and all will likely be game time decisions on Sunday. The Broncos should have cornerback Champ Bailey (hamstring), defensive end Elvis Dumervil (shoulder) and running back Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) back in the lineup for Sunday after missing last week’s game in Tennessee. Their defense will try to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers with Dumervil and first round draft pick Von Miller and I would expect them to go after Marshall Newhouse. Newhouse held his own and played pretty well against Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije last week against the Bears. On offense, the Broncos will try to exploit Charlie Peprah in coverage and look for them to try to run the ball between the tackles with Willis McGahee and Moreno.

My Prediction: I think the Packers will handle the Broncos from the opening kick. Rodgers to Finley all day and the Packer's defense will cause turnovers and get to Orton. Packers win this one big.

Packers 42 Broncos 17

Matt

End of the Week NFL Picks – Week Four

Record: 10-6

All times are Central Standard Time

Washington (2-1) vs. St. Louis (0-3)

12:00 FOX St. Louis, Missouri

The Rams are a mess and Washington is hungry after letting one slip away in Dallas. Watch for Washington’s running game to take advantage of the weak front seven of the Rams.

Prediction: Washington 24 St. Louis 14

San Francisco (2-1) vs. Philadelphia (1-2)

12:00 FOX Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I see the Eagles getting back on track against the 49ers. It will be a tough cross country trip for the Niners and Michael Vick and the Eagles are looking for something to prove.  If the 49ers have a shot at winning it is dependent on whether they have success running the football and setting up play action for Alex Smith. I just don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28 San Francisco 10

Pittsburgh (2-1) vs. Houston (2-1)

12:00 CBS Houston, Texas

This could be the game of the weekend. Pittsburgh struggled against an inferior team last week and the Texans had a lead in the fourth quarter in New Orleans last week. I think both defenses have the advantage in this game. This will be the Texans coming out party and they will show everyone that they are a serious threat to win the AFC.

Prediction: Houston 20 Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (2-1) vs. Jacksonville (1-2)

12:00 FOX Jacksonville, Florida

The Saints are clicking on offense but the defense is giving up too many points and yards. They are licking their chops because of the Jags and rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Greg Williams will confuse the young man behind center and the Saints will win easily.

Prediction: New Orleans 31 Jacksonville 13

Carolina (1-2) vs. Chicago (1-2)

12:00 FOX Chicago, Illinois

This game will be closer than most think. Cam Newton is the real deal at quarterback and Chicago has a hard time defending a mobile quarterback. The Panthers will hang around long enough for the Chicago faithful to boo and moan about how bad their team is but then the Bears will force a key turnover late to secure a Bears victory.

Prediction: Chicago 21 Carolina 17

Detroit (3-0) vs. Dallas (2-1)

12:00 FOX Arlington, Texas

Detroit has been impressive on both sides of the ball. Dallas has disappointed me on offense but their defense is why they are 2-1. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are playing out of their minds pressuring opposing quarterbacks and Jay Ratliff is a beast in the middle of an underrated defensive line. Detroit will get a shot of reality this week but it may benefit them. Don’t believe the hype, Detroit, or you will fall victim to it.

Prediction: Dallas 34 Detroit 17

Minnesota (0-3) vs. Kansas City (0-3)

12:00 FOX Kansas City, Missouri

There are very few guarantees in life but one of them is that after Sunday either the Vikings or Chiefs will have their first win of the year. Kansas City showed great resolve last week in a close loss to the Chargers and the Vikings collapsed in the second half for a third straight game. This game will not be pretty to watch but in the end Adrian Peterson is the difference and the Vikings earn their first win of the year.  I use the term "earn" loosely here.

Prediction: Vikings 28 Kansas City 14

Buffalo (3-0) vs. Cincinnati (1-2)

12:00 CBS Cincinnati, Ohio

This could be a letdown game for the Bills after a huge win at home against the Patriots last week. I think this game stays close right down to the end and see the Bengals pulling off a huge upset in front of their home crowd. Buffalo has been porous in coverage and I see AJ Green having a big game.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21 Buffalo 14

Tennessee (2-1) vs. Cleveland (2-1)

12:00 CBS Cleveland, Ohio

This will be another close game but in the end it will come down to who can control the line of scrimmage and give their quarterback enough time to air it out. Chris Johnson could be an X factor in this game. I say he gets it going in this game and the Titans win by a couple touchdowns.

Prediction: Titans 27 Browns 13

New York (NFC) (2-1) vs. Arizona (1-2)

3:05 FOX Glendale, Arizona

The Giants are on a roll and that will continue in the dessert on Sunday. I just don’t trust Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals offense. They only scored 10 points against the Seahawks last week and turned the ball over when it matter most. Eli Manning will protect the football and make big plays down the field to lead his team to a convincing victory in Arizona.

Prediction: New York (NFC) 34 Arizona 17

Atlanta (1-2) vs. Seattle (1-2)

3:05 FOX Seattle, Washington

The Falcons play bad on the road and the Seahawks play well at home. Regardless, I just don’t see Atlanta losing two in a row to inferior teams. Seattle will keep it close for the first half but Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will lead the Falcons to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 23 Seattle 10

New England (2-1) vs. Oakland (2-1)

3:15 CBS Oakland, California

This will be a tough game for the Patriots because of the travel. Tom Brady will put up his numbers but he has to protect the football. Oakland is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and that will be on full display against a very bad New England defense. In the final minute, Tom Brady will be Tom Brady and pull it off for the Pats.

Prediction: New England 38 Oakland 35

Denver (1-2) vs. Green Bay (3-0)

3:15 CBS Green Bay, Wisconsin

Please see my Broncos vs. Packers Late Week Report for my analysis and breakdown of the game. (coming soon!)

Prediction: Green Bay 42 Denver 17

Miami (0-3) vs. San Diego (2-1)

3:15 CBS San Diego, California

Three of San Diego’s first four games have been against winless teams (Minnesota, Kansas City, and now Miami). Miami’s offense is non-existent and their defense gives up way to many yards. Expect this to hold true on Sunday and for Phillip Rivers to have a field day against the Dolphins.

Prediction: San Diego 33 Miami 13

New York (AFC) (2-1) vs. Baltimore (2-1)

7:20 NBC Baltimore, Maryland

This is going to be a physical, hard hitting football game. Both defenses will be the key figures in the game. The Jets couldn’t stop the run last week in Oakland and Ray Rice could be the difference maker in this one. The Jets have trouble late and leave Baltimore with a second consecutive loss.

Prediction: Baltimore 17 New York (AFC) 10

Indianapolis (0-3) vs. Tampa Bay (2-1)

7:30 ESPN Tampa, Florida

Tampa Bay got a huge win against the Falcons last week but can they sustain the success that they had? They are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing on Monday Night Football. They are going up against an opponent that will possibly be without their starting quarterback. If Tampa Bay can keep Josh Freeman clean they will win. I bet they do.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 26 Indianapolis 17

Matt

NFL Player Profile: Marshall Newhouse

Last Sunday suffered another injury to a starter with Bryan Bulaga leaving the game with a bruised knee. You could hear all of Packer Nation let out a collective gasp when Bulaga pounded his fist in disappointment. Fans asked each other who would go in and replace Bulaga. Would it be first round pick Derrick Sherrod? Nope, he was inactive for the Bears game just like he was for the first two games. Many believe it is taking Sherrod more time to adjust to the pro game because of the lack of off-season work due to the NFL Lockout. They only other person on the depth chart was Marshall Newhouse. Newhouse, a second year pro out of TCU, was inactive for the first 14 games last season and injured his back on December 22 and was placed on Injured Reserve. He came into this year as just another name in a crowded line of offensive linemen. He battled in training camp and the coaches were high on his effort and picture perfect technique. When Bulaga went down, Newhouse grabbed his helmet and the offense didn’t miss a beat the rest of the game.

For most of the game Newhouse went up against Israel Idonije most of the time and held his own well. We all thought that as soon as Newhouse went in the Bears would move Julius Peppers over and line him up on the second year pro all game but that rarely happened. Newhouse at times looked like a seasoned veteran moving Idonije and Peppers when he was lined up against him. The communication was great and he, with Josh Sitton, opened massive holes and cut back lanes for Ryan Grant. Newhouse was humble after the game and gave attention to the reps in practice and being comfortable at his position for his success against the Bears. "Any D-line in this league is good," Newhouse said. "They're going to test you. But luckily I got a lot of reps at tackle and felt like I was prepared mentally. It gave me a chance to just play football and be athletic. Just be sound and play." Newhouse continues to take snaps with the first team offense while Bryan Bulaga rests his bruised knee.

Bulaga stated yesterday that he would be ready to play but Coach McCarthy said today that he and Ryan Grant would, “be challenged to play on Sunday”. If Bulaga is not ready to go on Sunday then Newhouse will be prepared and ready to play and play at a high level. This team is starting to take the same approach as last year’s team. The next man up will go in, and no matter if it is offense, defense or special teams, and not miss a beat.

Upon Further Review: Packers vs. Bears

Hero of the Game: The hero of the game on Sunday was Jermichael Finley. He caught 7 passes for 85 yards and caught his first 3 touchdowns of the season. The Bears had no answers for Finley all day. The Bears played Cover 3 for the beginning of the game and finally switched to their traditional Cover 2 once Finley and Greg Jennings began to shred the defense. That is what this offense will do to defenses all over the NFL. “There’s really not too much you can do with the weapons we have and him playing like that, lights out,” Jennings said of Finley. “You want to take one thing away but you open up a can of other things.” The Packers saw the weakness of the Bears, two backup safeties in Craig Steltz and Brandon Meriweather, and exposed it. And they didn’t do it once; they did it all day long.

Goat of the Game: There is really one guy that deserves this spot and that is James Starks. He had 11 carries for 5 yards. 5 yards is not going to get it done. There were cut back lanes and times when Starks could have fallen forward for a yard instead of losing a yard and he missed them. Ryan Grant did a fantastic job of cutting back and running through contact and Starks simply did not. “Grant made excellent reads, cuts, against the playbook to make yards. Starks ran the play as drawn up and ran into the trash,” said longtime Packers contributor, Mike Clemens on a comment on one of my previous posts. Starks also had a big fumble in the fourth quarter that turned into a touchdown for the Bears on the next play. This season the Packers are going to ride the hot hand. It was Starks in the first two games and was Grant in this one. I would expect that to continue and we will see which runner has the hot hand next.

Play of the Game: Ok I know the play didn’t count but it was the play of the game. The Packers punted with just under a minute left to play and a 10 point lead. Tim Masthay’s punt sailed downfield and Devin Hester run up to the left side of the field and looked skyward for the ball. The Packers coverage team reacted to Hester and rallied around him. The ball was actually on the other sideline and caught by Johnny Knox and had open field to the End Zone. It turned into an 89 yard touchdown return and it looked like the Bears had cut the lead to 3 and would get a chance at an onside kick but that never happened. Chicago’s Corey Graham was called for a holding penalty that negated the play and gave the Bears the ball back deep in their own territory with under a minute to play. It was bizarre but scary. The play had been tried earlier in the game and Jarret Bush had downed the ball at the Bears two. The Packers special teams will have to look at this play as a great teaching tool and get their guys to check the ball as they cover the kick.

Quick Hits:

5 -- False starts, all by the offensive line. Gotta clean that up.

111.4 – Aaron Rodgers quarterback rating against the Bears on Sunday. This was the first time against the Bears in Chicago that Rodgers posted a 100 or better quarterback rating. Previous ratings were 87.6, 88.9, 92.5 and 55.4.

100 – Yards rushing by the Packers against the Bears. Three straight 100 yards or more rushing to start the year.

13 – The number of rushing yards for the Bears against the Packers. Jay Cutler’s 9 yard scamper in the final minute gave them 13 yards, their lowest total in 59 years.
 
Matt

Looking forward to the weekend?  See what the Packers should be worried about going up against @kyleortonary and the Broncos.