Friday, September 30, 2011

End of the Week NFL Picks – Week Four

Record: 10-6

All times are Central Standard Time

Washington (2-1) vs. St. Louis (0-3)

12:00 FOX St. Louis, Missouri

The Rams are a mess and Washington is hungry after letting one slip away in Dallas. Watch for Washington’s running game to take advantage of the weak front seven of the Rams.

Prediction: Washington 24 St. Louis 14

San Francisco (2-1) vs. Philadelphia (1-2)

12:00 FOX Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I see the Eagles getting back on track against the 49ers. It will be a tough cross country trip for the Niners and Michael Vick and the Eagles are looking for something to prove.  If the 49ers have a shot at winning it is dependent on whether they have success running the football and setting up play action for Alex Smith. I just don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28 San Francisco 10

Pittsburgh (2-1) vs. Houston (2-1)

12:00 CBS Houston, Texas

This could be the game of the weekend. Pittsburgh struggled against an inferior team last week and the Texans had a lead in the fourth quarter in New Orleans last week. I think both defenses have the advantage in this game. This will be the Texans coming out party and they will show everyone that they are a serious threat to win the AFC.

Prediction: Houston 20 Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (2-1) vs. Jacksonville (1-2)

12:00 FOX Jacksonville, Florida

The Saints are clicking on offense but the defense is giving up too many points and yards. They are licking their chops because of the Jags and rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Greg Williams will confuse the young man behind center and the Saints will win easily.

Prediction: New Orleans 31 Jacksonville 13

Carolina (1-2) vs. Chicago (1-2)

12:00 FOX Chicago, Illinois

This game will be closer than most think. Cam Newton is the real deal at quarterback and Chicago has a hard time defending a mobile quarterback. The Panthers will hang around long enough for the Chicago faithful to boo and moan about how bad their team is but then the Bears will force a key turnover late to secure a Bears victory.

Prediction: Chicago 21 Carolina 17

Detroit (3-0) vs. Dallas (2-1)

12:00 FOX Arlington, Texas

Detroit has been impressive on both sides of the ball. Dallas has disappointed me on offense but their defense is why they are 2-1. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are playing out of their minds pressuring opposing quarterbacks and Jay Ratliff is a beast in the middle of an underrated defensive line. Detroit will get a shot of reality this week but it may benefit them. Don’t believe the hype, Detroit, or you will fall victim to it.

Prediction: Dallas 34 Detroit 17

Minnesota (0-3) vs. Kansas City (0-3)

12:00 FOX Kansas City, Missouri

There are very few guarantees in life but one of them is that after Sunday either the Vikings or Chiefs will have their first win of the year. Kansas City showed great resolve last week in a close loss to the Chargers and the Vikings collapsed in the second half for a third straight game. This game will not be pretty to watch but in the end Adrian Peterson is the difference and the Vikings earn their first win of the year.  I use the term "earn" loosely here.

Prediction: Vikings 28 Kansas City 14

Buffalo (3-0) vs. Cincinnati (1-2)

12:00 CBS Cincinnati, Ohio

This could be a letdown game for the Bills after a huge win at home against the Patriots last week. I think this game stays close right down to the end and see the Bengals pulling off a huge upset in front of their home crowd. Buffalo has been porous in coverage and I see AJ Green having a big game.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21 Buffalo 14

Tennessee (2-1) vs. Cleveland (2-1)

12:00 CBS Cleveland, Ohio

This will be another close game but in the end it will come down to who can control the line of scrimmage and give their quarterback enough time to air it out. Chris Johnson could be an X factor in this game. I say he gets it going in this game and the Titans win by a couple touchdowns.

Prediction: Titans 27 Browns 13



New York (NFC) (2-1) vs. Arizona (1-2)

3:05 FOX Glendale, Arizona

The Giants are on a roll and that will continue in the dessert on Sunday. I just don’t trust Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals offense. They only scored 10 points against the Seahawks last week and turned the ball over when it matter most. Eli Manning will protect the football and make big plays down the field to lead his team to a convincing victory in Arizona.

Prediction: New York (NFC) 34 Arizona 17

Atlanta (1-2) vs. Seattle (1-2)

3:05 FOX Seattle, Washington

The Falcons play bad on the road and the Seahawks play well at home. Regardless, I just don’t see Atlanta losing two in a row to inferior teams. Seattle will keep it close for the first half but Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will lead the Falcons to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 23 Seattle 10

New England (2-1) vs. Oakland (2-1)

3:15 CBS Oakland, California

This will be a tough game for the Patriots because of the travel. Tom Brady will put up his numbers but he has to protect the football. Oakland is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and that will be on full display against a very bad New England defense. In the final minute, Tom Brady will be Tom Brady and pull it off for the Pats.

Prediction: New England 38 Oakland 35



Denver (1-2) vs. Green Bay (3-0)

3:15 CBS Green Bay, Wisconsin

Please see my Broncos vs. Packers Late Week Report for my analysis and breakdown of the game. (coming soon!)

Prediction: Green Bay 42 Denver 17

Miami (0-3) vs. San Diego (2-1)

3:15 CBS San Diego, California

Three of San Diego’s first four games have been against winless teams (Minnesota, Kansas City, and now Miami). Miami’s offense is non-existent and their defense gives up way to many yards. Expect this to hold true on Sunday and for Phillip Rivers to have a field day against the Dolphins.

Prediction: San Diego 33 Miami 13

New York (AFC) (2-1) vs. Baltimore (2-1)

7:20 NBC Baltimore, Maryland

This is going to be a physical, hard hitting football game. Both defenses will be the key figures in the game. The Jets couldn’t stop the run last week in Oakland and Ray Rice could be the difference maker in this one. The Jets have trouble late and leave Baltimore with a second consecutive loss.

Prediction: Baltimore 17 New York (AFC) 10

Indianapolis (0-3) vs. Tampa Bay (2-1)

7:30 ESPN Tampa, Florida

Tampa Bay got a huge win against the Falcons last week but can they sustain the success that they had? They are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing on Monday Night Football. They are going up against an opponent that will possibly be without their starting quarterback. If Tampa Bay can keep Josh Freeman clean they will win. I bet they do.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 26 Indianapolis 17

Matt

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