Saturday, October 1, 2011

Fantasy Football: Week 4.

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday [09/28/11]

Greetings internet folk. I would like to thank @DaGoodOlBoys Chief, Kevin McMullen, for the opportunity to help you with the most important decisions you face every week – yes, what to do with your fantasy football team.

As an unemployed education major, I have the time to ponder matchups and view trends that help predict who to target, who to start, and who to win with every week. Furthermore, I won my family’s fantasy league title back in 2006 or something, so I’m only 5 years removed from fantasy football ecstasy!

Week 4

Let’s start off simple. Here’s a list of players at each position that I feel must be started EVERY week (in all formats) regardless of opponent at this early point of the season (provided they are healthy and team is not on bye). Order is not necessarily important, but rather a relative gauge of confidence.

Quarterback: Guys who are proven studs through 3 weeks / could give you 20+ points

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Michael Vick
5. Philip Rivers
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick



Running Back: Guys who are clearly the top option in their offense / receive ample touches and opportunities to score TDs

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Ray Rice
3. Darren McFadden
4. LeShon McCoy
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Michael Turner
7. Fred Jackson
8. Matt Forte
9. Peyton Hillis
10. Arian Foster (banking his hammy is better)



Wide Receiver: Guys who receive the most looks / have chemistry with QB

1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Mike Wallace
5. Greg Jennings
6. Wes Welker
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Roddy White
9. Brandon Marshall
10. Miles Austin (News since post submission: Injured)

Tight End: Big targets whom their QBs trust (especially in the red zone)

1. Jermichael Finley
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Rob Gronkowski
4. Jason Witten
5. Vernon Davis
6. Owen Daniels
7. Dustin Keller
8. Brandon Pettigrew
9. Antonio Gates *
10. Aaron Hernandez *

* Gates and Hernandez are banged up at the moment and have each missed a game.

D/ST and Kicker: Chances are, whoever you have will be fine. Streaming matchups is pretty effective too.

Week 4: Players of Interest: In this section, I’ll offer some players I think will have big weeks, some players to temper expectations with, and some trendy waiver-wire additions that will add depth to your team.

Pull the Trigger and START these guys:

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Titans: Hasselbeck looked done the last few seasons in Seattle. A terrible offensive line saw him constantly under pressure and / or injured. However, the twilight years of his career have been rejuvenated - must be the country-western tunes of Nashville. Hasselbeck is off to a great start, although losing star WR Kenny Britt to a knee injury hurts. I still think he has a nice day against the Browns.

Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins: I never thought I’d be advising this, especially after watching him stink up the joint in Chicago and thwart a potential Super Bowl a few years back. In Washington, Sexy Rexy has been on a tear. At least 250 yards and a TD in each game this year, now he gets to face a St. Louis defense that was last seen surrendering 389 yds and 3 TDs to Joe Flacco. So this isn’t so much an endorsement of Rexy’s talents, but more so saying go ahead and beat up on the subpar defense when it’s down.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Mathews was last season’s token ‘rookie RB to breakout as a fantasy stud.’ Expected to fulfill the departed LaDainian Tomlinson’s role, Mathews was pegged as a sure-fire fantasy star. Unfortunately, nagging injuries kept him limited and allowed Mike Tolbert to have a nice season. The season began with Tolbert scoring 3 TDs in the opener, but Mathews is quicker and more athletic. He’s also improved his blocking and pass catching. He’s very close to Every Week Must – Start territory.

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday.  I was going to edit this out because of recent news, but I thought it was written well! [09/28/11] Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: Speaking of rookie RBs, Thomas was hyped widely before the season. His value took a hit when Reggie Bush was announced as Miami’s starter. However, in each of the past 2 games Thomas has gained 100+ yards from scrimmage and scored last week. Reggie Bush may be a Kardashian-romancing ex-Heisman Trophy winner, but he sure ain’t a starting NFL RB. Thomas is a workhorse and should be ridden accordingly.

Mike Williams, WR, Bucs: After setting the world on fire as a rookie last year, Williams has started his sophomore campaign with a slump. Defenses roll coverage towards him, forcing Josh Freeman to rely on his other weapons. However, a Monday Night home game against a vulnerable Colts defense may be just what Williams needs to break out of his slump.

Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: It’s typically fantasy suicide to rely on receivers who have Tarvaris Jackson chucking it to them, but Rice did manage to catch 8 passes for 109 yards in his season debut and now gets to face a struggling Atlanta secondary. Can lightning strike twice?

Washington Redskins, D/ST: I think Sam Bradford is actually a good quarterback and may be a superstar on the Brady/Manning/Rodgers level some day. However, at the moment he is stuck with a shaky o-line and skill players that can’t even be classified as weapons of any level of destruction. The Redskins D has looked solid so far, and should feast on a lousy St. Louis team.

Go ahead and SIT these guys:

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: As mentioned above.



Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: Not that you’re probably going to start him anyway, but he’s facing a tough Ravens defense and is a turnover machine to begin with.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: Matty Ice, or Douche Ice, as I affectionately call him, is off to a shaky start. He’s not a fantasy asset at QB to begin with and faces a challenge this week playing at noisy Qwest Field in Seattle. Too risky, best to stay away.

Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders: Yes the Patriots D has been victimized by opposing passers to start the season. However, the Bills offense is on a role, Chan Gailey is a hot play caller at the moment, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is connecting with his receivers. If the Raiders beat the Patriots, it will be on account of McFadden running wild. Don’t get cute here.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans: A nice story to start the season filling in for injured team mate and last year’s rushing champ, Arian Foster. However, Foster is expected back and the matchup is against the tough Steelers run D that has looked human to start the year, but is still a solid unit. Tate will still be in the picture, but unclear how much. If Foster is a no-go, he could be a sneaky good play, but have other plans on Sunday.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: This guy is a flat-out tease. The Jets are a smash-mouth team, but Greene hasn’t seized the opportunity as the starter for this team. His season high is 59 rush yards. The guy might just stink. The matchup is against the Ravens D, and I’d rather use Greene against a less formidable opponent, if I had to use him at all.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Very disappointing start, although it’s unclear if that’s a product of Cam Newton airing it out, a mediocre o-line, or Williams just having lost a step. Has yet to top 30 rush yards in a game this year and hasn’t scored a TD yet. Refrain from usage until he shows signs of life.

All Your Broncos: Denver has a very tough matchup on the road this week, visiting the defending Super Bowl Champs at Lambeau Field. The Packers’ D has given up yardage in the passing game, but clamped down on Jay Cutler last week. This has the makings of a blow out, so there could be garbage-time points to be had, but there are better options in fantasy. Stay away from Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Willis McGahee, and Knowshon Moreno this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens: Faces a tough Jets secondary that features Revis Island and Antonio Cromartie. Flacco looked great slinging it last week, but this game is likely a low-scoring affair. There are better options.

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: It remains a mystery as to why he hasn’t been getting more touches this season. This side of AP, he is their most talented playmaker. However, I would keep him on the pine until the Vikes show that they’re willing to use him more.

Waiver Wire Gems: Looking for depth or a spot starter? Maybe these guys can help:

Nate Washington, WR, Titans: Should fill the void left by injured Kenny Britt. Hasselbeck will need a go-to guy. Could be a big-time play maker.

Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers: Frank Gore is injured (again) and could be limited this week at Philly. That may not be a bad thing for San Fran, however. Hunter is young, quick, and decisive. The rookie has a burst that Gore simply no longer has at this point. Jim Harbaugh used smash-mouth football to bring Stanford back to national attention, and will try to do the same with the 49ers. If Gore has a decreased workload or misses a game, Hunter will have an opportunity to become a star. Buyer beware: the SF O-line is one of the shakiest in the league. However, a starting RB is a starting RB.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns: With one of the best names in the NFL, Hardesty was expected to make a splash as a rookie last year. However, his ACL had other ideas and Peyton Hillis turned out to be a white Jim Brown. At the moment, Hillis is fighting strep throat, and Hardesty looked good filling in for him last week. Continued success could lead to a time-share, as Hillis faded down the stretch in 2010.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Now THAT is how to make a debut. 5 catches, 152 yards, 3 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect anything near that every week, but Smith made his presence known and the Ravens appear willing to air it out if the matchup is right. I wouldn’t plug him in as a starter just yet, but wait and see.

Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals: Contrary to popular belief, Cincinnati DOES have a professional football team in 2011 and their points count in fantasy, too. Cedric Benson is shall we say, unstable at best; but did enjoy a full work load. Starting this week, Benson is suspended for the next 3 games. The Bengals play the Bills, Jags, and Colts in that stretch. Scott is projected to step in as the starter and could make something happen.

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: With Mario Manningham injured, Cruz torched the Eagles for 2 TDs in exciting fashion. Eli Manning has to chuck it to someone, and with defenses focused on Hakeem Nicks, Cruz will benefit if Manningham misses more time.

Tashard Choice / DeMarco Murray, RBs, Cowboys: Well, the inevitable Felix Jones injury is upon us. Not clear at the moment if Felix will miss time, but if he does - monitor the situation closely. Either or both of these guys could see time as the starter and Coach Garrett will likely ride the hot hand. Advantage Choice in terms of experience with the offense, but Murray is a talented option as well.

Randy McMichael, TE, Chargers: With all-world stud Antonio Gates limping around and questionable to play, McMichael steps into the lucrative Chargers starting TE role. Although Vincent Jackson figures to see most of the looks, McMichael has been a reliable receiving threat in the past and could score a cheap TD.



Well that’s it for this week, good luck with your matchups in Week 4. Eyes on the Prize folks, Eyes on the Prize.

- Dan (Mac)

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday [09/28/11]

3 comments:

  1. Hey Dan!

    Miles Austin is Out this week! Add the Bills David Nelson!!!!!!!

    Mike

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for the comment! Dan submitted this post on Wednesday, we were holding it for the weekend, but I didn't account for injury updates!

    Kevin

    ReplyDelete
  3. I am happy to report that after the cowboys bye next week...Miles Austin is back!

    ReplyDelete