Fantasy Football: Week 4.

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday [09/28/11]

Greetings internet folk. I would like to thank @DaGoodOlBoys Chief, Kevin McMullen, for the opportunity to help you with the most important decisions you face every week – yes, what to do with your fantasy football team.

As an unemployed education major, I have the time to ponder matchups and view trends that help predict who to target, who to start, and who to win with every week. Furthermore, I won my family’s fantasy league title back in 2006 or something, so I’m only 5 years removed from fantasy football ecstasy!

Week 4

Let’s start off simple. Here’s a list of players at each position that I feel must be started EVERY week (in all formats) regardless of opponent at this early point of the season (provided they are healthy and team is not on bye). Order is not necessarily important, but rather a relative gauge of confidence.

Quarterback: Guys who are proven studs through 3 weeks / could give you 20+ points

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Michael Vick
5. Philip Rivers
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Back: Guys who are clearly the top option in their offense / receive ample touches and opportunities to score TDs

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Ray Rice
3. Darren McFadden
4. LeShon McCoy
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Michael Turner
7. Fred Jackson
8. Matt Forte
9. Peyton Hillis
10. Arian Foster (banking his hammy is better)

Wide Receiver: Guys who receive the most looks / have chemistry with QB

1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Mike Wallace
5. Greg Jennings
6. Wes Welker
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Roddy White
9. Brandon Marshall
10. Miles Austin (News since post submission: Injured)

Tight End: Big targets whom their QBs trust (especially in the red zone)

1. Jermichael Finley
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Rob Gronkowski
4. Jason Witten
5. Vernon Davis
6. Owen Daniels
7. Dustin Keller
8. Brandon Pettigrew
9. Antonio Gates *
10. Aaron Hernandez *

* Gates and Hernandez are banged up at the moment and have each missed a game.

D/ST and Kicker: Chances are, whoever you have will be fine. Streaming matchups is pretty effective too.

Week 4: Players of Interest: In this section, I’ll offer some players I think will have big weeks, some players to temper expectations with, and some trendy waiver-wire additions that will add depth to your team.

Pull the Trigger and START these guys:

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Titans: Hasselbeck looked done the last few seasons in Seattle. A terrible offensive line saw him constantly under pressure and / or injured. However, the twilight years of his career have been rejuvenated - must be the country-western tunes of Nashville. Hasselbeck is off to a great start, although losing star WR Kenny Britt to a knee injury hurts. I still think he has a nice day against the Browns.

Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins: I never thought I’d be advising this, especially after watching him stink up the joint in Chicago and thwart a potential Super Bowl a few years back. In Washington, Sexy Rexy has been on a tear. At least 250 yards and a TD in each game this year, now he gets to face a St. Louis defense that was last seen surrendering 389 yds and 3 TDs to Joe Flacco. So this isn’t so much an endorsement of Rexy’s talents, but more so saying go ahead and beat up on the subpar defense when it’s down.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Mathews was last season’s token ‘rookie RB to breakout as a fantasy stud.’ Expected to fulfill the departed LaDainian Tomlinson’s role, Mathews was pegged as a sure-fire fantasy star. Unfortunately, nagging injuries kept him limited and allowed Mike Tolbert to have a nice season. The season began with Tolbert scoring 3 TDs in the opener, but Mathews is quicker and more athletic. He’s also improved his blocking and pass catching. He’s very close to Every Week Must – Start territory.

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday.  I was going to edit this out because of recent news, but I thought it was written well! [09/28/11] Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: Speaking of rookie RBs, Thomas was hyped widely before the season. His value took a hit when Reggie Bush was announced as Miami’s starter. However, in each of the past 2 games Thomas has gained 100+ yards from scrimmage and scored last week. Reggie Bush may be a Kardashian-romancing ex-Heisman Trophy winner, but he sure ain’t a starting NFL RB. Thomas is a workhorse and should be ridden accordingly.

Mike Williams, WR, Bucs: After setting the world on fire as a rookie last year, Williams has started his sophomore campaign with a slump. Defenses roll coverage towards him, forcing Josh Freeman to rely on his other weapons. However, a Monday Night home game against a vulnerable Colts defense may be just what Williams needs to break out of his slump.

Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: It’s typically fantasy suicide to rely on receivers who have Tarvaris Jackson chucking it to them, but Rice did manage to catch 8 passes for 109 yards in his season debut and now gets to face a struggling Atlanta secondary. Can lightning strike twice?

Washington Redskins, D/ST: I think Sam Bradford is actually a good quarterback and may be a superstar on the Brady/Manning/Rodgers level some day. However, at the moment he is stuck with a shaky o-line and skill players that can’t even be classified as weapons of any level of destruction. The Redskins D has looked solid so far, and should feast on a lousy St. Louis team.

Go ahead and SIT these guys:

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: As mentioned above.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: Not that you’re probably going to start him anyway, but he’s facing a tough Ravens defense and is a turnover machine to begin with.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: Matty Ice, or Douche Ice, as I affectionately call him, is off to a shaky start. He’s not a fantasy asset at QB to begin with and faces a challenge this week playing at noisy Qwest Field in Seattle. Too risky, best to stay away.

Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders: Yes the Patriots D has been victimized by opposing passers to start the season. However, the Bills offense is on a role, Chan Gailey is a hot play caller at the moment, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is connecting with his receivers. If the Raiders beat the Patriots, it will be on account of McFadden running wild. Don’t get cute here.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans: A nice story to start the season filling in for injured team mate and last year’s rushing champ, Arian Foster. However, Foster is expected back and the matchup is against the tough Steelers run D that has looked human to start the year, but is still a solid unit. Tate will still be in the picture, but unclear how much. If Foster is a no-go, he could be a sneaky good play, but have other plans on Sunday.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: This guy is a flat-out tease. The Jets are a smash-mouth team, but Greene hasn’t seized the opportunity as the starter for this team. His season high is 59 rush yards. The guy might just stink. The matchup is against the Ravens D, and I’d rather use Greene against a less formidable opponent, if I had to use him at all.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Very disappointing start, although it’s unclear if that’s a product of Cam Newton airing it out, a mediocre o-line, or Williams just having lost a step. Has yet to top 30 rush yards in a game this year and hasn’t scored a TD yet. Refrain from usage until he shows signs of life.

All Your Broncos: Denver has a very tough matchup on the road this week, visiting the defending Super Bowl Champs at Lambeau Field. The Packers’ D has given up yardage in the passing game, but clamped down on Jay Cutler last week. This has the makings of a blow out, so there could be garbage-time points to be had, but there are better options in fantasy. Stay away from Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Willis McGahee, and Knowshon Moreno this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens: Faces a tough Jets secondary that features Revis Island and Antonio Cromartie. Flacco looked great slinging it last week, but this game is likely a low-scoring affair. There are better options.

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: It remains a mystery as to why he hasn’t been getting more touches this season. This side of AP, he is their most talented playmaker. However, I would keep him on the pine until the Vikes show that they’re willing to use him more.

Waiver Wire Gems: Looking for depth or a spot starter? Maybe these guys can help:

Nate Washington, WR, Titans: Should fill the void left by injured Kenny Britt. Hasselbeck will need a go-to guy. Could be a big-time play maker.

Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers: Frank Gore is injured (again) and could be limited this week at Philly. That may not be a bad thing for San Fran, however. Hunter is young, quick, and decisive. The rookie has a burst that Gore simply no longer has at this point. Jim Harbaugh used smash-mouth football to bring Stanford back to national attention, and will try to do the same with the 49ers. If Gore has a decreased workload or misses a game, Hunter will have an opportunity to become a star. Buyer beware: the SF O-line is one of the shakiest in the league. However, a starting RB is a starting RB.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns: With one of the best names in the NFL, Hardesty was expected to make a splash as a rookie last year. However, his ACL had other ideas and Peyton Hillis turned out to be a white Jim Brown. At the moment, Hillis is fighting strep throat, and Hardesty looked good filling in for him last week. Continued success could lead to a time-share, as Hillis faded down the stretch in 2010.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Now THAT is how to make a debut. 5 catches, 152 yards, 3 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect anything near that every week, but Smith made his presence known and the Ravens appear willing to air it out if the matchup is right. I wouldn’t plug him in as a starter just yet, but wait and see.

Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals: Contrary to popular belief, Cincinnati DOES have a professional football team in 2011 and their points count in fantasy, too. Cedric Benson is shall we say, unstable at best; but did enjoy a full work load. Starting this week, Benson is suspended for the next 3 games. The Bengals play the Bills, Jags, and Colts in that stretch. Scott is projected to step in as the starter and could make something happen.

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: With Mario Manningham injured, Cruz torched the Eagles for 2 TDs in exciting fashion. Eli Manning has to chuck it to someone, and with defenses focused on Hakeem Nicks, Cruz will benefit if Manningham misses more time.

Tashard Choice / DeMarco Murray, RBs, Cowboys: Well, the inevitable Felix Jones injury is upon us. Not clear at the moment if Felix will miss time, but if he does - monitor the situation closely. Either or both of these guys could see time as the starter and Coach Garrett will likely ride the hot hand. Advantage Choice in terms of experience with the offense, but Murray is a talented option as well.

Randy McMichael, TE, Chargers: With all-world stud Antonio Gates limping around and questionable to play, McMichael steps into the lucrative Chargers starting TE role. Although Vincent Jackson figures to see most of the looks, McMichael has been a reliable receiving threat in the past and could score a cheap TD.

Well that’s it for this week, good luck with your matchups in Week 4. Eyes on the Prize folks, Eyes on the Prize.

- Dan (Mac)

[10/01/11 Edit] Editor's Note: Column was submitted Wednesday [09/28/11]

End of the Week NFL Picks – Week Four

Record: 10-6

All times are Central Standard Time

Washington (2-1) vs. St. Louis (0-3)

12:00 FOX St. Louis, Missouri

The Rams are a mess and Washington is hungry after letting one slip away in Dallas. Watch for Washington’s running game to take advantage of the weak front seven of the Rams.

Prediction: Washington 24 St. Louis 14

San Francisco (2-1) vs. Philadelphia (1-2)

12:00 FOX Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I see the Eagles getting back on track against the 49ers. It will be a tough cross country trip for the Niners and Michael Vick and the Eagles are looking for something to prove.  If the 49ers have a shot at winning it is dependent on whether they have success running the football and setting up play action for Alex Smith. I just don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28 San Francisco 10

Pittsburgh (2-1) vs. Houston (2-1)

12:00 CBS Houston, Texas

This could be the game of the weekend. Pittsburgh struggled against an inferior team last week and the Texans had a lead in the fourth quarter in New Orleans last week. I think both defenses have the advantage in this game. This will be the Texans coming out party and they will show everyone that they are a serious threat to win the AFC.

Prediction: Houston 20 Pittsburgh 17

New Orleans (2-1) vs. Jacksonville (1-2)

12:00 FOX Jacksonville, Florida

The Saints are clicking on offense but the defense is giving up too many points and yards. They are licking their chops because of the Jags and rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Greg Williams will confuse the young man behind center and the Saints will win easily.

Prediction: New Orleans 31 Jacksonville 13

Carolina (1-2) vs. Chicago (1-2)

12:00 FOX Chicago, Illinois

This game will be closer than most think. Cam Newton is the real deal at quarterback and Chicago has a hard time defending a mobile quarterback. The Panthers will hang around long enough for the Chicago faithful to boo and moan about how bad their team is but then the Bears will force a key turnover late to secure a Bears victory.

Prediction: Chicago 21 Carolina 17

Detroit (3-0) vs. Dallas (2-1)

12:00 FOX Arlington, Texas

Detroit has been impressive on both sides of the ball. Dallas has disappointed me on offense but their defense is why they are 2-1. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are playing out of their minds pressuring opposing quarterbacks and Jay Ratliff is a beast in the middle of an underrated defensive line. Detroit will get a shot of reality this week but it may benefit them. Don’t believe the hype, Detroit, or you will fall victim to it.

Prediction: Dallas 34 Detroit 17

Minnesota (0-3) vs. Kansas City (0-3)

12:00 FOX Kansas City, Missouri

There are very few guarantees in life but one of them is that after Sunday either the Vikings or Chiefs will have their first win of the year. Kansas City showed great resolve last week in a close loss to the Chargers and the Vikings collapsed in the second half for a third straight game. This game will not be pretty to watch but in the end Adrian Peterson is the difference and the Vikings earn their first win of the year.  I use the term "earn" loosely here.

Prediction: Vikings 28 Kansas City 14

Buffalo (3-0) vs. Cincinnati (1-2)

12:00 CBS Cincinnati, Ohio

This could be a letdown game for the Bills after a huge win at home against the Patriots last week. I think this game stays close right down to the end and see the Bengals pulling off a huge upset in front of their home crowd. Buffalo has been porous in coverage and I see AJ Green having a big game.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21 Buffalo 14

Tennessee (2-1) vs. Cleveland (2-1)

12:00 CBS Cleveland, Ohio

This will be another close game but in the end it will come down to who can control the line of scrimmage and give their quarterback enough time to air it out. Chris Johnson could be an X factor in this game. I say he gets it going in this game and the Titans win by a couple touchdowns.

Prediction: Titans 27 Browns 13

New York (NFC) (2-1) vs. Arizona (1-2)

3:05 FOX Glendale, Arizona

The Giants are on a roll and that will continue in the dessert on Sunday. I just don’t trust Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals offense. They only scored 10 points against the Seahawks last week and turned the ball over when it matter most. Eli Manning will protect the football and make big plays down the field to lead his team to a convincing victory in Arizona.

Prediction: New York (NFC) 34 Arizona 17

Atlanta (1-2) vs. Seattle (1-2)

3:05 FOX Seattle, Washington

The Falcons play bad on the road and the Seahawks play well at home. Regardless, I just don’t see Atlanta losing two in a row to inferior teams. Seattle will keep it close for the first half but Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will lead the Falcons to a much needed victory.

Prediction: Atlanta 23 Seattle 10

New England (2-1) vs. Oakland (2-1)

3:15 CBS Oakland, California

This will be a tough game for the Patriots because of the travel. Tom Brady will put up his numbers but he has to protect the football. Oakland is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and that will be on full display against a very bad New England defense. In the final minute, Tom Brady will be Tom Brady and pull it off for the Pats.

Prediction: New England 38 Oakland 35

Denver (1-2) vs. Green Bay (3-0)

3:15 CBS Green Bay, Wisconsin

Please see my Broncos vs. Packers Late Week Report for my analysis and breakdown of the game. (coming soon!)

Prediction: Green Bay 42 Denver 17

Miami (0-3) vs. San Diego (2-1)

3:15 CBS San Diego, California

Three of San Diego’s first four games have been against winless teams (Minnesota, Kansas City, and now Miami). Miami’s offense is non-existent and their defense gives up way to many yards. Expect this to hold true on Sunday and for Phillip Rivers to have a field day against the Dolphins.

Prediction: San Diego 33 Miami 13

New York (AFC) (2-1) vs. Baltimore (2-1)

7:20 NBC Baltimore, Maryland

This is going to be a physical, hard hitting football game. Both defenses will be the key figures in the game. The Jets couldn’t stop the run last week in Oakland and Ray Rice could be the difference maker in this one. The Jets have trouble late and leave Baltimore with a second consecutive loss.

Prediction: Baltimore 17 New York (AFC) 10

Indianapolis (0-3) vs. Tampa Bay (2-1)

7:30 ESPN Tampa, Florida

Tampa Bay got a huge win against the Falcons last week but can they sustain the success that they had? They are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing on Monday Night Football. They are going up against an opponent that will possibly be without their starting quarterback. If Tampa Bay can keep Josh Freeman clean they will win. I bet they do.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 26 Indianapolis 17

Matt

Matt’s Week Three NFL Power Rankings

Week three of the NFL season is in the books and the teams are still positioning themselves. The Bills, Lions and Packers all stayed unbeaten and the Dolphins, Colts and Chiefs still can’t buy a break. Let’s see how the teams stack up from 32 to 1.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) – There is still nothing really to say about the Chiefs. They gave a valiant effort against an uninspired Chargers team. Next up is Minnesota, will anyone watch?

31. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) – If only NFL games were 30 minutes long, then the Vikings would be 3-0, but you have to play the entire 60 minutes and that is why the Vikings are 0-3. The offense doesn’t give the ball to their playmakers (Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin) enough in the second half and there defense becomes non-existent.

30. St. Louis (0-3) – No heart. That is what I saw against the Ravens. That was embarrassing.

29. Miami Dolphins (0-3) – Had the lead until the final minute and let it slip away, just like their season. Tony Sporano better update his resume because his time in Miami is almost up.

28. Indianapolis Colts (0-3) – I was impressed with the Colts defense against the Steelers but their offense looks horrendous. They can’t play that way and beat good teams.

27. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) – Their defense played strong against the Cardinals but their offense is very poor. Will they be able to score enough points to win? We shall see.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) – They had a chance to win a rain soaked game against the Panthers and couldn’t get it done. Expect more growing pains with rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

25. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) – The offense has to play better if they are going to win games. They are young and will have to figure it out in a hurry.

24. Carolina Panthers (1-2) – The Panthers have impressed me early on this year. Their defense is hard hitting and their offense can move the ball and they have a leader at the quarterback position.

23. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) – Bad loss in Seattle to a division opponent. Kevin Kolb has to play better and not turn the ball over at the end of the game.

22. Cleveland Browns (2-1) – I like the way the Browns are playing. Colt McCoy leads the way and with him playing well this could be a good year for the Dog Pound.

21. Denver Broncos (1-2) – They played the Titans tough in Tennessee but came away empty handed. The road doesn’t get any easier with a trip to Lambeau and the defending champs. Could we get a #Tebow sighting?

20. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) – Their offense was shaky against the Bengals but they found a way to win and in the NFC West that is all you have to do to win that division.

19. Washington Redskins (2-1) – Rex Grossman has got to protect the football and the offense has got to learn to move the ball down the field better. Red Zone offense is a weakness for this team also. The defense will have to keep playing like they are to keep the Redskins in the NFC East race.

18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) – The Falcons are a Jeckel and Hyde team. Can’t play on the road and looked good at home. They need to figure out how to get Julio Jones the ball more.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – They got a huge divisional win against the Falcons at home. Can they build on it and start rolling? We shall see.

16. Oakland Raiders (2-1) – That was a really good win against the Jets but let’s see the Raiders put it together. Beat the Pats on Sunday and I think you may have something brewing in Oakland.

15. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) – Sorry Dallas but I am not buying what you are selling. Too many mistakes by the offensive line and the receivers. They couldn’t get the ball in the end zone and had to rely on a rookie kicker for all of their points. If they continue to do that they will be disappointed.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) – Philly, you looked bad in the fourth quarter last week. Can Michael Vick stay healthy all year? That is the big question. So far through three games, he hasn’t been able to finish two of them.

13. Buffalo Bills (3-0) – Buffalo got a huge win against the Patriots but I am still not sold on them. In their last two games they have had to comeback from 18 or more points to win. They have to shore up their defense and then they will be a top ten team.

12. Chicago Bears (1-2) – The Bears had the toughest start to the season and came out of it 1-2. They need more balance on offense and the defense has to take the ball away more. Jay Cutler just doesn’t look comfortable back in the pocket; he may be seeing ghosts out there.

11. Tennessee Titans (2-1) – Good comeback win against the Broncos. Their defense played really well and Matthew Hasselbeck made just enough plays to win. Losing wide receiver Kenny Brit for the year with a torn ACL is a big loss though.

10. San Diego Chargers (2-1) – I was really not impressed by the way San Diego played against the Chiefs. They looked like they were just going through the motions out there. In the NFL, you cannot take any opponent lightly.

9. New York Giants (2-1) – Great win in Philly. Defense came to play and pressured Michael Vick and Mike Kafka all day. Eli Manning needs to play turnover free like he did and the Giants will be tough to beat.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) – Big Ben is turning the ball over too much, which will come back to haunt them when they start playing the really good teams in the AFC. The defense is starting to come together and getting pressure on the other team’s quarterbacks.

7. New York Jets (2-1) – The Jets jumped out to a early lead but gave it back in the second half. Where was the hard-nosed Jets defense? The Raiders ran all over them. Expect Rex Ryan to address that this week in practice and for them to clean it up.

6. Houston Texans (2-1) – Even with the loss on the road to the Saints, the Texans did a lot of things well. They had the lead in the fourth quarter and had their opportunities to win the game. Gotta learn to finish those games out and get wins.

5. Detroit Lions (3-0) – Great comeback win in a building the Lions haven’t won in since 1997. Calvin Johnson looks like no one could cover him and the offensive line has played well, minus the first half against the Vikings.

4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) – They did what they had to do in St. Louis. Go and dominate. Big test against the Jets this Sunday.

3. New England Patriots (2-1) – Tom Brady gave the game away with his four interceptions, my bet is Brady doesn’t throw four more all year.

2. New Orleans Saints (2-1) – Great comeback win against the Texans. Drew Bress is playing lights out and the defense is starting to take the ball away. The Saints are firmly on track.

1. Green Bay Packers (3-0) – Good win in Chicago against a tough division opponent in the Bears. Gotta clean up the penalties and giving up big plays on defense. Jermichael Finley is unstoppable.
 
Matt
 
Editors note: See how teams are trending, through Matt's eyes, by comparing to his Week Two Power Rankings.